Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fa11bf01dd585b6b69cb4e440b2449fd68a760e932a83dd66cf90bfc59a420c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adelaide United FCof Melbourne City FC, Adelaide United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Melbourne City FC | 27c | 712.6$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…08a9backed Melbourne City FC | 24c | 399.86$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Adelaide United FC | 73c | 318.16$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b5…1db6backed Adelaide United FC | 78c | 253.01$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Melbourne City FC | 27c | 247.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Adelaide United FC | 75c | 206.41$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Melbourne City FC | 23c | 140.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Adelaide United FC | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8122…4cedbacked Adelaide United FC | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…934dbacked Adelaide United FC | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Adelaide United FC | 76c | 93.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Melbourne City FC | 27c | 88.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…3f7bbacked Adelaide United FC | 66c | 74.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Melbourne City FC | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Melbourne City FC | 41c | 43.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Adelaide United FC | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Melbourne City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.