Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c134f82e3de142c5b6380632ce2ce82efd4aa974afd000d051ea33bd66553f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 6,507$5,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.9 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 9c | 3,613$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.38 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 18c | 2,986$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.58 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 63c | 2,375$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 9c | 2,101$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +206.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 24c | 1,955$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 1,162$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.03 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 26c | 1,107$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.66 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 39c | 988.1$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.36 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 39c | 939.44$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.38 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Over | 23c | 900$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 35c | 660$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 38c | 499.97$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 38c | 397.81$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Under | 52c | 397.78$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 62c | 393.07$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.11 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 38c | 300$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 36c | 299.87$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 79c | 282.45$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 76c | 271.86$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 75c | 246.77$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 64c | 169.7$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 76c | 142.17$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…1363backed Over | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 31c | 101.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 59c | 82.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 62c | 78.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 76c | 77.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 39c | 61.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 38c | 57.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 64c | 51.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 49.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 51c | 49.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 62c | 44.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…d539backed Under | 75c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 80c | 39.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…9852backed Under | 73c | 36.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 36c | 33.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 38c | 32.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 78c | 27.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 76c | 25.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 19.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.