Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x136050936d874ff3a2794de859d687d36ca96375f98c9a89f1efb7249eb14be4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 4,041$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.5 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 19c | 2,506$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 17c | 1,973$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.05 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Over | 58c | 1,603$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 851.96$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 30c | 796.44$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.87 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 16c | 677.86$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Under | 12c | 504.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 65c | 460$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…586dbacked Over | 80c | 370.5$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 17c | 277.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 48c | 272.21$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.37 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 13c | 234.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf293…ba11backed Over | 78c | 227.72$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 12c | 227.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 16c | 226.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 18c | 213.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 78c | 180$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 26c | 135.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 18c | 95.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 15c | 90.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Over | 60c | 83.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 61c | 78.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…8d00backed Under | 17c | 61.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 41c | 53.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 54c | 52.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 59c | 34.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Over | 60c | 32.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 78c | 24.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 80c | 22.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Over | 64c | 19.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.