Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fa4d193fab4ea85e49e133d492b468fa4113281cfce24274b2fdc147f0c94aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 54c | 988.21$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.36 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 45c | 665.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 46c | 246$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 198.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 156.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 149.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 148.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 125.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 58c | 123$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 47c | 113$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 45c | 94.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 87.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 87.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 49c | 82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 52c | 76.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae1…242abacked Yes | 21c | 76.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 43c | 71.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 45c | 68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 61.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 64c | 60.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 58.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 54.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 51.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 60c | 49.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 44c | 48.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed No | 58c | 44.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 53c | 44.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 48c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 52c | 38.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 54c | 37.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 47c | 37.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 51c | 36.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6210backed Yes | 47c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 48c | 28.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 28.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 27.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 44c | 27.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 48c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 58c | 23.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 61c | 22.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 60c | 22.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 61c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 61c | 19.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 52c | 19.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.