Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3a5f343de758e2035baadf411d9eb72982a232977e410dff8127dffa6313711
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 7c | 1,820$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 767$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.01 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 579.91$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 462.27$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.83 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 77c | 369.47$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 320.53$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.21 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 58c | 227$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.66 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 191.26$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 188.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 45c | 166.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.91 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 74c | 135.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 123.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 102.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 43c | 86.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 29c | 79.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 59c | 76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 73.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 60c | 72.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 41c | 69.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 66.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 42c | 56.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 42c | 56.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 46c | 54.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 35.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 43c | 35.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 50c | 30.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 27.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 25.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 75c | 15.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 74c | 14.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.