NHL · resolved market
Spread: Islanders (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fcee2eaa6f6f4ea949922cba3e8abacd2ddbff17351ddb1e8c6ae3c05482c84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Islanders, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ea3…31d6backed Sabres | 70c | 3,350$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f32…4a6abacked Islanders | 30c | 3,343$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e519backed Islanders | 29c | 1,100$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ad…4fc1backed Sabres | 71c | 420$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…1b88backed Sabres | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Sabres | 69c | 361.35$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.02 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96fb…4c0fbacked Sabres | 71c | 280$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Islanders | 28c | 259$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Islanders | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Sabres | 72c | 210$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Islanders | 32c | 141.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Sabres | 73c | 137.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Sabres | 68c | 111.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Islanders | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…6e5bbacked Islanders | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Islanders | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sabres | 72c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Islanders | 31c | 45.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. IslandersSabres won
- Sabres vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.