NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddc3b11ded414019223c1d07f048b5a172b6322ca1986f78173bc21d1ba9657d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Over | 47c | 7,946$3,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,734.61 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.99 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 53c | 4,900$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,308.56 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 53c | 4,545$2,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,136.15 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 47c | 4,335$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.66 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 47c | 2,421$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.87 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 56c | 2,000$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.78 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 1,834$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.88 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 52c | 1,198$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.45 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 53c | 1,198$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.3 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.43 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Over | 50c | 993.06$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.24 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 53c | 654.95$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.83 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 53c | 548.23$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.67 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 540.12$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.06 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 527.84$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.72 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 47c | 468.09$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 54c | 444$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 52c | 416.67$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 47c | 379$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.13 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Over | 47c | 357.85$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.19 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 57c | 326$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.12 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…88fdbacked Under | 55c | 266.22$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.8 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Under | 67c | 245.25$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 48c | 188.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 181.01$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 38c | 137.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a6abacked Under | 54c | 136.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 22c | 131.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 121.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 105.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 71c | 102.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe323…f90abacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Under | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc127…66e9backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…ce5fbacked Over | 37c | 47.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 54c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc3…6112backed Over | 48c | 40.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…5847backed Under | 55c | 36.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Under | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 32.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 32.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Under | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Over | 48c | 26.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f4…dec3backed Under | 54c | 25.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…6e5bbacked Over | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 54c | 19.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…a8a0backed Under | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5this page
- Sabres vs. IslandersSabres won
- Sabres vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.