Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fe9918d5cf57abdc68cc1bdca546878cc4736801300b186e32771d5fe04f354
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 1,244$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 1c | 966.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 9c | 720.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 15c | 695.57$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 6c | 668.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 3c | 616.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 583.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 8c | 553.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked Yes | 7c | 540.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6f…8a91backed Yes | 8c | 519.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 510.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 11c | 503.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 22c | 493.53$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 446.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 8c | 415.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 11c | 400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 5c | 396.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 26c | 343.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 3c | 333.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 315.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes | 7c | 285.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 275.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 9c | 210.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 204.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b07…f0ffbacked Yes | 12c | 200.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 199.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 8c | 197.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 11c | 189.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 8c | 166.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 13c | 152.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked Yes | 11c | 152.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 9c | 152.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 11c | 131.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 79c | 128.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 18c | 125.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 120.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x857e…f0b2backed Yes | 10c | 98.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…51bfbacked Yes | 57c | 73.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 71c | 63.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed No | 64c | 48.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 61c | 46.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 52c | 40.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 44c | 40.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 42c | 38.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed No | 80c | 36.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83e…c0b5backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 77c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.