Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x799736b953678de34b1021e4adad3bb37e443f256090a85459e67eede8a8fed0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1231…796fbacked Yes | 51c | 2,822$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.92 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98c…8f64backed No | 79c | 1,636$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.63 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 1,055$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 16c | 812.53$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 8c | 755.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 33c | 544.5$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.25 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 45c | 500$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 54c | 499.96$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.98 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 62c | 452.42$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.41 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 44c | 449.76$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.52 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…9325backed No | 75c | 399.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 388.79$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 321.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 46c | 268.14$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.43 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 247$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 43c | 228.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 59c | 213.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 36c | 211.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Yes | 55c | 182.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 172.5$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 43c | 167$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 46c | 161.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 159.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ab50backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 54c | 149.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 147.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed Yes | 46c | 145.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 33c | 143.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 16c | 142$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 36c | 139.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 49c | 138.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 135$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8894…bab0backed Yes | 67c | 132.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 26c | 130.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 59c | 115.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 115.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 64c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed No | 59c | 104.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 15c | 102.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 94.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 54c | 93.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 93.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 87.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 23c | 87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5a…d32abacked Yes | 33c | 82.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ac…e9d8backed No | 60c | 75.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 39c | 73.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9b…eb61backed Yes | 46c | 69.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked No | 47c | 68.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 46c | 67.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 34c | 66.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 46c | 64.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 60c | 64.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 26c | 64.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 46c | 63.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 27c | 62.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 58.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 37c | 58.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 52c | 57.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 57.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 55c | 54.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 57c | 52.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 57c | 52.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282a…f2c5backed Yes | 43c | 52.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 41c | 49.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 37c | 48.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 48.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 61c | 47.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 57c | 46.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b07…f0ffbacked Yes | 43c | 46.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 44c | 45.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 44c | 44.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 44c | 42.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 40c | 42.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbebe…15d5backed Yes | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 58c | 38.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b9…1eebbacked No | 55c | 36.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.