Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6554553818ce7e00edf18e1cd30d99d2092842ece0022882b55548d56b4de2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 1,026$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 755.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 431.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 12c | 326.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 23c | 261.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 234.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 226.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 25c | 209.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 42c | 190.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…78f2backed Yes | 30c | 164.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 163.17$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…8a94backed No | 76c | 157.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 117.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 103.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 16c | 100.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked No | 77c | 91.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 89.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 83.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 82.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 23c | 78.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…3327backed Yes | 30c | 74.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 34c | 66.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 27c | 63.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 22c | 62.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 57.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 74c | 51.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 51.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc403…ade9backed Yes | 28c | 47.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 32c | 46.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 36.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 32.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e33…52e4backed No | 78c | 32.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ab50backed No | 78c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 18.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…18dbbacked No | 74c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 75c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.