Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc29d97aa6a1e68690aefd62542fe8892453d85bc8aef76e3a81cea04fe860fee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 0c | 6,192$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 1,442$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 37c | 851.43$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.34 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 35c | 705.24$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.37 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed No | 71c | 682.42$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.92 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 588.04$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 53c | 556.58$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.25 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 37c | 553.04$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.4 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 49c | 507.32$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.69 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 24c | 370.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 26c | 320.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.59 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 32c | 307.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 41c | 294.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.67 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 276.94$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 72c | 275.63$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 34c | 267.55$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.92 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed Yes | 37c | 224.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.2 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 28c | 222.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.71 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 27c | 221.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.86 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 26c | 219.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.13 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 7c | 214.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 202.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 58c | 199.94$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 37c | 193.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 188$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 186.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 34c | 178.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.44 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 26c | 174.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 75c | 166.41$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 155.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.43 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 143.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed No | 71c | 136.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 36c | 126.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 74c | 120$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked No | 66c | 108$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 30c | 105.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 23c | 97.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…56e8backed Yes | 31c | 95.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 26c | 94.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…f0ddbacked Yes | 69c | 88.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 86.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…f925backed Yes | 71c | 84.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 27c | 74.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…a908backed No | 41c | 74.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8894…bab0backed Yes | 68c | 73.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 70c | 71.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 64c | 70.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 69.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 68.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 68.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 39c | 65.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 63.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 28c | 62.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4d…8a27backed Yes | 65c | 61.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…51bfbacked Yes | 58c | 60.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 50c | 60.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 76c | 57.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 57.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b07…f0ffbacked Yes | 73c | 55.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 51c | 54.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 43c | 53.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 51.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938c…2d5dbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 44c | 48.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 44.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 31c | 44.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 61c | 40.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 42c | 37.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…8468backed Yes | 57c | 33.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 30.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 70c | 29.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 67c | 29.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 48c | 29.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3f95backed No | 78c | 24.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 42c | 24.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 72c | 22.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd058…e26bbacked Yes | 60c | 21.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 53c | 19.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.