Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fe9928d8bc17e3beaba55110c1e41965aef7c29dfcbb453fd9785895b789fb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 27c | 549.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 213.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 148.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 70c | 142.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 137.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 121.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 107.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 64c | 96.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 32c | 76.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…739abacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 72c | 70.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 69c | 65.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb9…7895backed No | 78c | 63.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 79c | 62.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 31c | 56.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 55.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 54.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 36c | 53.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 53.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 43.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…bea2backed Yes | 27c | 39.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 35c | 35.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 57c | 33.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 78c | 31.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 27.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…11abbacked No | 72c | 19.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 16.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.