Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29f48b4b48ec987674fe51956bf14584f0c9cb7a661e8f3ffb048d5606270c9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 3,814$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 1c | 1,488$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 20c | 827.77$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.97 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 527.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 393.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 364.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 8c | 288.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 248.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 64c | 194.11$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.11 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 167.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 8c | 162.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.72 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 21c | 160.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.23 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 142.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…5619backed Yes | 12c | 126$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 39c | 125.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 80c | 113.47$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 46c | 96.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 95.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 67c | 88.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 18c | 77.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 16c | 75.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…3679backed No | 65c | 69.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 36c | 64.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc753…b617backed No | 24c | 63.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 22c | 60.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 52c | 58.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 30c | 55.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 59c | 54.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 64c | 52.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 79c | 48.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 64c | 47.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 44.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 53c | 43.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 40.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42bc…e5fdbacked Yes | 59c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 78c | 31.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 31.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 76c | 30.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 28.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 79c | 27.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 25.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 60c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 51c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 59c | 18.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 60c | 18.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 73c | 13.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 78c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.