Mls · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ff050be2c6de2c440889cdf18f7d44f13d7ed1a08b05c16c6937018b1fb679b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Portland Timbersof Los Angeles FC, Portland Timbers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Portland Timbers | 76c | 4,440$3,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.41 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Los Angeles FC | 22c | 3,983$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.26 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Los Angeles FC | 30c | 1,638$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.18 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Portland Timbers | 71c | 1,596$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.67 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Los Angeles FC | 30c | 1,401$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.16 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Portland Timbers | 68c | 800$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Portland Timbers | 79c | 770.87$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.48 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Portland Timbers | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Los Angeles FC | 32c | 730.29$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.69 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Los Angeles FC | 23c | 608.69$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Los Angeles FC | 28c | 599.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Los Angeles FC | 27c | 580.11$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.01 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Portland Timbers | 69c | 380.99$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.11 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Portland Timbers | 79c | 354.11$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Portland Timbers | 79c | 354.11$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Los Angeles FC | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Portland Timbers | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Los Angeles FC | 29c | 255.15$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Los Angeles FC | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Los Angeles FC | 29c | 249.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Portland Timbers | 80c | 226.86$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Los Angeles FC | 14c | 195$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Portland Timbers | 69c | 190.49$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Portland Timbers | 75c | 168.37$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Portland Timbers | 75c | 151.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Portland Timbers | 79c | 142.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Los Angeles FC | 21c | 142.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Portland Timbers | 70c | 117.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Los Angeles FC | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Los Angeles FC | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Portland Timbers | 80c | 75.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Portland Timbers | 80c | 75.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Los Angeles FC | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Portland Timbers | 80c | 69.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Portland Timbers | 70c | 65.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Portland Timbers | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Portland Timbers | 75c | 58.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles FC | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Portland Timbers | 79c | 49.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Portland Timbers | 74c | 42.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Portland Timbers | 71c | 42.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Portland Timbers | 76c | 40.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…30cfbacked Portland Timbers | 68c | 21.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Portland Timbers | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Portland Timbers | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)this page
- Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.