Mls · resolved market

Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadd84dbf54c9c94adb5a71a25592dbe78449eded6dedbf8f6efc421b5c8ac4db

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 11, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $23,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,305 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Mls
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdb22…6478backed Over	41c	11,190$4,588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,587.91	156	47.4%74 W · 82 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under	59c	5,051$2,980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,070.81	130	53.1%69 W · 61 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under	59c	4,260$2,504 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,755.99	215	47.9%103 W · 112 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	61c	2,157$1,326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$830.37	3,012	43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L	-29.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d0…8814backed Over	39c	1,238$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over	38c	735.38$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.41	108	53.7%58 W · 50 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	61c	542.9$334 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.28	477	48.2%230 W · 247 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over	30c	500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	62	22.6%14 W · 48 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Over	42c	499.86$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.94	65	46.2%30 W · 35 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under	59c	460.06$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.62	429	47.1%202 W · 227 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under	61c	403.35$247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.2	483	44.9%217 W · 266 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over	41c	365.85$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	62c	365.07$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.19	777	51.7%402 W · 375 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87a8…2dedbacked Over	43c	347.31$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.44	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed Under	66c	310.78$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.08	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over	38c	299.64$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.42	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	+4.5wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed Under	71c	281.69$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.69	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.36per pick	56cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6945…873dbacked Over	41c	243.9$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	102	50%51 W · 51 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Under	59c	230.03$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.31	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Over	35c	223$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.05	114	41.2%47 W · 67 L	-10.3wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Under	65c	223$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.05	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2b…d743backed Over	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-4.5wins	-0.15per pick	27cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	65c	200.67$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.62	783	44.4%348 W · 435 L	-30.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Under	57c	175.43$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.43	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3605…e7cbbacked Under	65c	165.25$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.25	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.25per pick	55cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under	71c	165$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.16	240	46.7%112 W · 128 L	-15.4wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	26c	156.24$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.65	287	21.6%62 W · 225 L	-29.9wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	61c	150$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.5	392	34.4%135 W · 257 L	-47.2wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-31%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over	44c	144$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.2	1,009	46.2%466 W · 543 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under	57c	138$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.62	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+6.5wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked Over	33c	130$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	59c	128.32$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.13	580	43.6%253 W · 327 L	-12.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under	59c	127$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.07	238	58%138 W · 100 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf07…e601backed Over	26c	100$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-3.0wins	-0.30per pick	40cpaid	-81.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under	61c	99.2$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.62	195	60%117 W · 78 L	+10.3wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	58c	96.61$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.21	1,301	51.2%666 W · 635 L	-19.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Over	43c	90$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.7	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	29c	82.81$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.31	820	44.5%365 W · 455 L	-16.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1792…118abacked Over	15c	76.88$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	125	71.2%89 W · 36 L	+19.9wins	+0.16per pick	55cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed Over	43c	69.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.3wins	-0.18per pick	33cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4e4…d947backed Over	32c	63.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.49	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Under	59c	55.03$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.36	86	52.3%45 W · 41 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under	60c	46.45$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.58	92	50%46 W · 46 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Under	60c	46.45$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.58	58	56.9%33 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under	60c	46.3$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.43	154	58.4%90 W · 64 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under	60c	46.3$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.43	248	59.3%147 W · 101 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under	60c	46.3$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.43	222	63.1%140 W · 82 L	+12.2wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under	61c	38.02$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.86	259	34.4%89 W · 170 L	-28.1wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfd43…7b3fbacked Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under	58c	34.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.49	106	55.7%59 W · 47 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	61c	33.07$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.88	122	54.1%66 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under	61c	33.06$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.87	94	58.5%55 W · 39 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Under	61c	33.06$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.87	52	50%26 W · 26 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under	61c	33.06$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.87	141	51.8%73 W · 68 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Under	61c	30.52$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.98	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6859…f7c2backed Over	40c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3016…f1fcbacked Under	77c	29.84$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.86	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under	59c	27.86$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.33	49	59.2%29 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd226…38b4backed Under	59c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.25	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Under	61c	23.96$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.32	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under	60c	22.58$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.11	94	52.1%49 W · 45 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	62c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.65	923	46.6%430 W · 493 L	-9.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	73c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	288	51.4%148 W · 140 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f1d…7132backed Under	74c	17.57$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.57	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bfe…0741backed Under	61c	17.28$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.74	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5this page
Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event