Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ff13b46b304fb09af7d2d00001504fc2b363e7661844c21f399ba7f0f93f1d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 57c | 824.35$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.35 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 58c | 331.91$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.02 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 276.26$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 260.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 41c | 253.19$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…d6cbbacked No | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 115.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 65c | 115.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 108.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 108$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 106.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed No | 32c | 104.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 87.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 44c | 86.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 36c | 80.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 42c | 75.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 72.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 71.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 63.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 59.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 27c | 57.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 55c | 43.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 49c | 42.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 75c | 36.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 35.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 61c | 32.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 58c | 32.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 47c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 41c | 32.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 31.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 30.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 36c | 27.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 27.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 53c | 23.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 66c | 22.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…1048backed Yes | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 54c | 18.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.