MLB · resolved market
Pirates vs. Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60096226c19176c53a43cb5ba13f87787c8423c5c7a9f07fcc07b1288b064ff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Pirates, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Cardinals | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,200 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…6528backed Cardinals | 46c | 18,136$8,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,801.38 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Pirates | 51c | 11,699$5,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,966.65 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Pirates | 54c | 9,582$5,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,174.23 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…0dcebacked Pirates | 51c | 7,775$3,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,965.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Pirates | 54c | 3,043$1,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.36 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Pirates | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cardinals | 48c | 986.75$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.75 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pirates | 54c | 972.72$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.87 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Pirates | 57c | 924.59$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.63 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pirates | 54c | 890.48$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.25 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Pirates | 55c | 800$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Cardinals | 48c | 519.76$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.76 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Pirates | 52c | 482.69$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Cardinals | 45c | 473.02$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.02 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Pirates | 57c | 290.15$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.38 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Pirates | 51c | 285.6$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Pirates | 54c | 266$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Pirates | 52c | 213.16$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Cardinals | 50c | 203.92$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Pirates | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pirates | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Pirates | 52c | 180.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Cardinals | 45c | 133$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cardinals | 44c | 113.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cardinals | 57c | 105$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Pirates | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Cardinals | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Cardinals | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Pirates | 52c | 97.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Pirates | 53c | 91.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Cardinals | 50c | 66.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Cardinals | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pirates | 47c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Pirates | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Pirates | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Pirates | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cardinals | 47c | 44.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cardinals | 46c | 43.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Pirates | 53c | 41.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Pirates | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf0…fd3abacked Pirates | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cardinals | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Cardinals | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Pirates | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Cardinals | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.