Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x601275bf04c8746fc31b169bdf673953d0deda8f86ae67507e4467e911ba2fa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,087$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 763.16$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 710.18$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 70c | 570.92$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.92 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 28c | 349.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 72c | 338.28$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.72 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 28c | 322.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 30c | 252.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 30c | 188.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 180.61$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 29c | 178.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 175.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 72c | 173.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 147.65$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…d288backed Yes | 28c | 136.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 28c | 136.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 72c | 113.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…2fc3backed Yes | 43c | 100.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 93.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 93.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 89.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 76.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 32c | 70.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 73c | 68.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 61.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 19c | 56.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 53.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 28c | 52.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 29c | 47.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 22c | 47.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 33c | 45.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 43.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 39.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 28c | 39.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 37c | 38.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 74c | 37.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 75c | 30.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 70c | 30.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 71c | 28.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 73c | 27.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 74c | 22.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 75c | 22.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 74c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 19.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…adefbacked No | 71c | 19.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…d0a9backed No | 75c | 19.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 80c | 16.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 70c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 74c | 15.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.