Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3495cb8f7496d850883390e6542b7e4cfe2fdda3e7d9826eccf02322afbb53d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 49c | 538.19$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.94 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 50c | 263.46$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.56 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 29c | 246.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.35 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 56c | 209.71$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 5c | 204.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 73c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 199.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 70c | 183.8$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.32 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 161.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 49c | 157.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 144.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 56c | 138.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 33c | 136.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 132$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 68c | 132$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 47c | 101.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…3803backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 47c | 93.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 52c | 91.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 63c | 91.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 74c | 89.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 88.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 44c | 80.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 29c | 79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 28c | 78.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 68c | 77.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 74c | 77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 74.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 58c | 72.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 19c | 71.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…d8cebacked No | 57c | 70.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 60c | 65.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 61.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 61c | 61.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f5…c4c9backed Yes | 46c | 60.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 59.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 72c | 55.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 25c | 48.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 32c | 46.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 72c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 40.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed No | 48c | 39.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…e9afbacked Yes | 70c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 72c | 31.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651d…a588backed Yes | 64c | 31.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 63c | 29.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 77c | 27.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 68c | 27.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 59c | 25.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 59c | 24.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Yes | 61c | 24.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 23.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 42c | 23.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 72c | 22.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 46c | 22.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…ad6dbacked Yes | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 19.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 73c | 15.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…32d0backed Yes | 71c | 15.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.9wins | -0.35per pick | 71cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 69c | 15.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.