Earnings · resolved market
Will Lennar Corp (LEN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6017141bd35f0186ef40a79fcd49f938fd4b6f983578dc88e1b4d6bcb77964c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 10c | 764.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.17 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 12c | 563.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +429.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d21…df94backed No | 15c | 299.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 15c | 299.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.96 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 13c | 259.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 14c | 257.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.42 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…6da4backed No | 14c | 246.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +252.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…4210backed No | 15c | 225.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.46 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1818…4143backed No | 13c | 218.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +265.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 212.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.43 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…af58backed No | 14c | 163.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 13c | 160.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +163.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 20c | 157.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed No | 14c | 146.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 14c | 127.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.32 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed No | 13c | 119.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed No | 19c | 102.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…bb1bbacked No | 15c | 100.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked No | 15c | 94.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…4aa5backed No | 22c | 91.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 79c | 86.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 13c | 86.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked No | 21c | 86.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed No | 21c | 76.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 80c | 74.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d9…087fbacked No | 27c | 52.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 68c | 15.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.