Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6029dbd7431b38c21d16eada587ae6b103e01cb5f8cb39709039c5a7cf55b9ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 37c | 608.4$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.41 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 74c | 580.35$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.41 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 63c | 397.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 46c | 346.68$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.48 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 265.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 220$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 164.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 45c | 163.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 29c | 157.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.94 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…b764backed No | 47c | 145.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 79c | 131.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 130.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 41c | 130.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 43c | 124.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 114.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 24c | 110$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 27c | 102.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed No | 27c | 99.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 96.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked No | 23c | 93.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 36c | 90.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 77.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 76.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 52c | 76.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf14a…86d2backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 68c | 56.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 56.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked No | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 44c | 50.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 50.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 32c | 45.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…753bbacked Yes | 73c | 39.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 71c | 37.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 40c | 35.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 43c | 35.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 50c | 34.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 50c | 31.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…bf41backed No | 70c | 25.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 55c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…9752backed No | 74c | 21.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 67c | 21.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 48c | 21.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…5049backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked Yes | 74c | 14.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +186%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.