Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6040ded7c154da6493c96a2e3894a720b6683a335ba48debb15ecf09a8fffc54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc34…e42dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,996$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 51c | 364.81$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.68 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 43c | 245.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 43c | 193.58$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked No | 60c | 186.69$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 54c | 176.83$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 176.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 37c | 163.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 138.67$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 62c | 122.74$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…00a8backed Yes | 65c | 104.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 64c | 102.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 73c | 102.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 101.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 55c | 91.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 58c | 89.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 87.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 39c | 81.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 79.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 46c | 73.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 26c | 71.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaf…9a28backed Yes | 38c | 66.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff50…b446backed No | 79c | 63.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e7…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 62.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed No | 52c | 51.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…ca6dbacked Yes | 44c | 51.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 40c | 48.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 52c | 47.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…2f76backed No | 54c | 46.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 44.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 72c | 41.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe28…09abbacked No | 71c | 40.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…aa0cbacked Yes | 45c | 38.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 65c | 36.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 39c | 36.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…d983backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 43c | 36.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 51c | 34.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…7f23backed Yes | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No | 47c | 31.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91a…a33ebacked Yes | 64c | 31.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed No | 66c | 30.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed No | 56c | 27.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…8e81backed No | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 40c | 26.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…471abacked No | 50c | 25.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21cc…2939backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 58c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…f014backed Yes | 53c | 20.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…1611backed No | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…4a60backed No | 71c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…0365backed No | 62c | 18.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 57c | 18.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 61c | 17.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 37°F or below on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.