South American Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Juárez vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60468f9e68d63f9a5ae65c18920f286f32c3c525ced68f8db05e5b5f4fac01d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 54c | 1,769$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.34 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 43c | 1,064$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.25 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 26c | 877$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.02 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 55c | 680$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 50c | 313.76$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.49 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 68c | 298.88$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.17 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Yes | 54c | 256.73$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 38c | 198.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 79c | 168.03$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed No | 60c | 132$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 15c | 119.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…b824backed Yes | 28c | 109$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 45c | 95.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…f1c5backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Yes | 64c | 90.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…1e75backed Yes | 55c | 89.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 25c | 81.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 73c | 75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 27c | 67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…bf74backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Yes | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…a909backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked No | 36c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 68c | 16.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Juárez vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-01-13?Yes won
- Will FC Juárez win on 2026-01-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.