Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C or higher on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6056d638ce22d34405b2f24cdf1bec3141b029fa32be87e79a6448ac90980935
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 60c | 248.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed Yes | 23c | 169.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 65c | 158.13$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 53c | 133.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130.21$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 51c | 118.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 58c | 118$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 50c | 107.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 102.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 64c | 94.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 45c | 88.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 82.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 48c | 79.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46ba…23d2backed Yes | 43c | 69.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 32c | 66.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 64.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 63.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 61.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 59.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 34c | 59.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 31c | 56.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 77c | 55.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 52.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…5628backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 35c | 47.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 55c | 46.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 43.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 75c | 42.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 72c | 41.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed Yes | 29c | 41.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 34c | 39.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 36.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 64c | 34.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 41c | 34.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 62c | 32.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…60f4backed No | 67c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 39c | 28.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 38c | 27.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 66c | 24.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 64c | 23.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 75c | 22.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b6…886ebacked Yes | 54c | 22.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…707bbacked No | 71c | 21.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 73c | 19.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C or higher on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.