College Football · resolved market
Spread: Miami (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60611a2bd5da31e7906f767f85428d455b960f821bb64a4c46b29b51d5d667ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miamiof Miami, Florida
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Florida | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Miami | 51c | 15,521$7,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,607.4 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Florida | 49c | 14,965$7,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,333.09 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Miami | 50c | 13,461$6,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,730.58 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Miami | 50c | 5,960$3,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,954.88 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Miami | 50c | 3,231$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Miami | 50c | 3,010$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Florida | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.99 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…a608backed Florida | 51c | 1,750$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.5 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Florida | 49c | 1,635$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.15 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Florida | 49c | 1,226$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.78 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Florida | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…73b7backed Miami | 50c | 818.1$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Miami | 53c | 636.68$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.24 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Miami | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Florida | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Miami | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Florida | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…d648backed Miami | 51c | 164$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…c3e4backed Florida | 49c | 162$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Miami | 51c | 137$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Florida | 49c | 122.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Florida | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Miami | 49c | 99.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…6a01backed Miami | 50c | 99.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…7aa4backed Miami | 50c | 99.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…bb74backed Miami | 51c | 97.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Miami | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Miami | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Florida | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…c163backed Miami | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c12…042fbacked Florida | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Florida | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f1…876bbacked Miami | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami (-7.5)this page
- Florida vs. MiamiMiami won
- Florida vs. Miami: O/U 50.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.