Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 35-36°F on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x606a828d15305ae90ba0b3c9dfdfdf3f6833a0523f024d6dab5d8174661582c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $400,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $400,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $400,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23f1…e733backed Yes | 66c | 115,000$75,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,900 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…b5dcbacked No | 34c | 115,000$39,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75,900 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9056…df79backed Yes | 27c | 78,000$21,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,060 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…723dbacked No | 73c | 78,000$56,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,060 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 2c | 8,840$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.69 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked No | 61c | 469.32$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.8 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 24c | 243.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…404cbacked No | 61c | 241$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 23c | 216.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 201.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 43c | 198.76$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked No | 49c | 186.8$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4686…5637backed Yes | 54c | 182$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes | 50c | 137.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 47c | 112.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…fcf7backed Yes | 39c | 111$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked No | 71c | 110.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 50c | 103.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 46c | 102.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…ca10backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a2…3c55backed No | 46c | 94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 47c | 93.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…9bbebacked No | 46c | 91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 68c | 81.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb318…4e77backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffe…5449backed No | 54c | 77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c7…185bbacked Yes | 54c | 76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 15c | 73.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…3a66backed Yes | 53c | 70.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…3136backed Yes | 39c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8995…1a70backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 58.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 21c | 58.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…5524backed No | 58c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 79c | 54.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…b6a4backed Yes | 39c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018c…448abacked Yes | 48c | 51.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed Yes | 33c | 51.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 69c | 48.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 34c | 47.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25a5…a807backed No | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6917…e65ebacked No | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…14aabacked No | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…9184backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…a518backed Yes | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf521…bd90backed Yes | 31c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…d6dfbacked Yes | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5d…2a88backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a430backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ab…68e6backed Yes | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…da2ebacked Yes | 64c | 33.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b75…7aa2backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54d…2972backed Yes | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…8216backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8b…8a7ebacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee2…7be7backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba8…6b9fbacked No | 64c | 28.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…a79dbacked Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 39c | 26.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…e311backed No | 61c | 25.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…bd7abacked Yes | 43c | 24.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc5…f5e1backed Yes | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…c500backed No | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…074cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…8416backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda0…63a5backed Yes | 78c | 17.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked No | 63c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 35-36°F on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 41°F or higher on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 37-38°F on February 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.