Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 37-38°F on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ecbe4cf265c3a452fa0789fe599a8290bab15b42caed605ae7bbae2ef2e5ee7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed No | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 57c | 505.68$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.24 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 381.14$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.06 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 42c | 283.42$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.64 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 63c | 182.19$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…4e95backed Yes | 41c | 181.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes | 50c | 136.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 42c | 129.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…f509backed Yes | 42c | 108.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 34c | 104.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 68c | 102.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 38c | 101$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb594…0f9cbacked No | 63c | 94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 43c | 83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 79.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 62c | 73.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…5e48backed Yes | 41c | 72.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf827…d4cdbacked No | 67c | 69.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 26c | 65.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 36c | 62.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 39c | 61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7368…a25bbacked No | 60c | 59.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 41c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…24acbacked Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…872fbacked Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…e80ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…6c28backed Yes | 37c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…c66fbacked No | 60c | 46.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa33…e699backed No | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4035backed No | 60c | 33.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 59c | 32.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f5…4bf3backed No | 60c | 32.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b95…d8dbbacked No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b26…610fbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba9…e679backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…745abacked Yes | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 37-38°F on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 41°F or higher on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 35-36°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.