Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60ab425708c0c525700c3d260a0a7c67054b03c71b3bdaa838164056e1e6f822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 0c | 79,122$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 778.04$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 422.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 311.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 268.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 256.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.5 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 14c | 228.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 197.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.29 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 190$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 79c | 188$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.52 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 26c | 180.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.23 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 156.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 139.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bd…3c3ebacked Yes | 21c | 137.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked No | 78c | 131.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81a…1d47backed No | 76c | 129.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 126.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 116.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 18c | 103.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe52a…43dfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 95.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 18c | 94.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 41c | 93.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed No | 77c | 89.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 75.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 73.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 69.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 33c | 58.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 79c | 53.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 30c | 48.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 48c | 39.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 72c | 33.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed No | 41c | 33.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked Yes | 80c | 33.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 30.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 52c | 30.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…bcf9backed No | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 29.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…c067backed No | 79c | 27.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 59cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 80c | 21.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 72c | 20.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 19.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 66c | 19.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 71c | 14.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 78c | 13.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.