Fifa International · resolved market
Will United States win on 2025-11-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60e27990e23705eae79536d8b371cc2913e307cdf8a291473bd46d1f5f74ccb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 2c | 3,418$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 3,264$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.43 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 32c | 1,841$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.2 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 1,511$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.76 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 79c | 827$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.82 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 30c | 799.43$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.43 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 792.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.13 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 29c | 459.24$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.24 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 70c | 452.7$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.67 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 49c | 435.65$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.15 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 30c | 378.63$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.29 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 28c | 357.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 20c | 334.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 550 | 45.1%248 W · 302 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 28c | 290.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.13 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 60c | 198$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.82 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed No | 73c | 172$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…0425backed No | 75c | 168.61$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…ef6abacked Yes | 29c | 141.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…4ddebacked No | 75c | 140$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Yes | 27c | 88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Yes | 27c | 71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…2a5ebacked Yes | 31c | 55.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 75c | 49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…3217backed Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 56c | 24.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed No | 65c | 24.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 66c | 18.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will United States win on 2025-11-18?this page
- Will United States vs. Uruguay end in a draw?No won
- Will Uruguay win on 2025-11-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.