Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x610a362ba5abd82a8bd50c395c5ac991b9deb94c03d0fd614d3bd0f75a1fcf72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,778$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.78 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.98 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…fc47backed No | 69c | 1,160$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 824.54$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 12c | 761.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.09 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 70c | 706.4$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.94 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 544.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 15c | 529.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.93 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 7c | 500.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.97 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x972e…4c84backed No | 65c | 407.98$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 68c | 399$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.63 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 50c | 376.95$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.72 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 19c | 354.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.23 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 264.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.72 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 13c | 264.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.68 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 262.19$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.29 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 61c | 254.32$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.12 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 250.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.76 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 15c | 240.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.36 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 30c | 237.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 218.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 25c | 211.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 205.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.9 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed Yes | 12c | 190.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.9 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 13c | 188.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.31 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 186.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 16c | 186$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 7c | 183.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.06 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 9c | 170.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.74 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 163.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 75c | 148.39$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.7 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 50c | 148.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 21c | 145$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 8c | 142.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed Yes | 17c | 140.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.94 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 15c | 137.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 62c | 105$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 13c | 101$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7d…0f88backed Yes | 16c | 100.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 80.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 78.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 66c | 73.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 71.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 18c | 66.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 74c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 50c | 55.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 55.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1ba2backed Yes | 57c | 52.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 49.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…360bbacked No | 70c | 47.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 76c | 47.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 39.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed Yes | 78c | 38.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 70c | 31.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 57c | 21.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…40dcbacked No | 64c | 17.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 71c | 15.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.