Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa14e8ab6abfbfbcc5bcb7bd11b6a4e281d64a7a8c089ef14f5021bed2f5ea02c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 2c | 6,688$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.42 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 1c | 6,058$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910e…29bcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,067$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 10c | 725.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 343.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 253.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 10c | 199.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 22c | 195.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 15c | 188.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 181.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 8c | 173.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 152.5$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae6…3fe9backed Yes | 14c | 147.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 143.03$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 10c | 142.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1ca5backed Yes | 10c | 123.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 28c | 121.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 113.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 20c | 109.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 11c | 109.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…d740backed Yes | 21c | 91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 18c | 88.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 86.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 28c | 76.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd751…0fedbacked Yes | 23c | 71.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 67.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de9…a441backed Yes | 23c | 64.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 22c | 62.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 78c | 52.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 32c | 51.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 76c | 43.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 33.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 32.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 75c | 25.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 23.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbccf…95e1backed No | 79c | 16.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.