TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,678

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,745 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes1c3,433$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3334624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes1c2,133$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.952533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes47c1,784$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.1530919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes33c676.77$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.685,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed No65c658.17$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.9217358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes77c358.67$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.919747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c340.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.222,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked No41c337.53$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.1129520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No42c313.48$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.7574926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No46c267.8$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.032,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c262.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No9c249.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.271,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes22c245.7$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.051,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes49c245.02$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8812941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes30c211$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes72c209.43$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.191,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No57c208.43$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.088955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No69c205.86$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.899963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64da…2292backed Yes24c204.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.785824.1%14 W · 44 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa5f…08d5backed No76c201.39$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.974367.4%29 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes21c196.42$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.259,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No30c196.24$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.2935058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No40c188.5$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.213,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes29c188.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.911,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No20c161.35$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.4743859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa139…5bc2backed Yes72c150.91$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911240.2%45 W · 67 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No21c145$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.631,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed No12c142.48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.515236.2%55 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No59c129.68$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.537,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No79c126$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4681165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2686…d740backed Yes20c121.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.41520%3 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes17c120.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.556823.5%16 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c119.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.89,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes20c116.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.471,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes20c111.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4693837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes48c101.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7d…0f88backed Yes45c100.83$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.69425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b22…74ecbacked No11c99.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.751258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+77.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes66c92.39$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No50c87.75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1446444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes45c87.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.663538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No53c87.03$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7592028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d34…a917backed Yes76c80$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.945534.5%19 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed No59c75.92$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3319764.5%127 W · 70 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x258b…db84backed Yes53c74.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.85728.1%16 W · 41 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No41c72.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5738758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes50c71.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4746240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c69.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.31,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No46c68.56$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2739158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d10…a713backed Yes28c67.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0714332.2%46 W · 97 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+81.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes45c66.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8944945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No58c65$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.362,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes24c64.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5537835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes44c63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7260739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No52c61.9$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4935854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes45c60.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2799961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No54c58.22$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6716968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No18c58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4128456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes47c57.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9725239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No47c57.37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3893734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No24c56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6941258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No57c55.88$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0388973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes34c52.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6316036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9819037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1ba2backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.662040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.443,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.516234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No61c49.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.694,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No50c49.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5849646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes48c49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7415345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1724149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes43c46.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2066926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a89…0e5dbacked No33c43.07$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.992245.5%10 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked Yes48c41.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9244147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No39c40.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.661,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes65c39.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.925946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No34c39.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.073,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No41c36.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8989951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes52c35.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.531442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No39c34$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7538258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cfa…3b3dbacked Yes44c33.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed No45c32.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.742643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No78c31.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0186173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No57c31.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5216159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No78c31.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9127771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ed…35c4backed Yes49c30.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517861.2%109 W · 69 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No51c30.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9339159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c4a…668abacked No53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.21163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No54c29.33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3542049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No59c29.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.022,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No53c28.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.351631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf66…565cbacked Yes72c27.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c25.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.292,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.254,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No63c24.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.