Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe11751f1ef3c14611d1caf73af6fcbcefe7743eecaefda48453dcbbeaa5882fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 1c | 3,433$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 1c | 2,133$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,784$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.15 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 676.77$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 65c | 658.17$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.92 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 77c | 358.67$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.91 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.22 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 41c | 337.53$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.11 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 42c | 313.48$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.75 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 267.8$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.03 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 262.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 9c | 249.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.27 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 22c | 245.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 49c | 245.02$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 30c | 211$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 72c | 209.43$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 57c | 208.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.08 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 205.86$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 24c | 204.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed No | 76c | 201.39$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 196.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 30c | 196.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.29 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 188.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 29c | 188.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 20c | 161.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.47 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 72c | 150.91$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 21c | 145$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.63 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 12c | 142.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 129.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…d740backed Yes | 20c | 121.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 17c | 120.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 119.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 20c | 116.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 20c | 111.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 101.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7d…0f88backed Yes | 45c | 100.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked No | 11c | 99.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 66c | 92.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 50c | 87.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 87.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 53c | 87.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 59c | 75.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 53c | 74.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 41c | 72.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 50c | 71.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 69.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 46c | 68.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 28c | 67.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 45c | 66.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 24c | 64.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 44c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 52c | 61.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 45c | 60.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 54c | 58.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 18c | 58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 47c | 57.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 47c | 57.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 24c | 56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 57c | 55.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 34c | 52.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1ba2backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 49.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 49.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 43c | 46.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…0e5dbacked No | 33c | 43.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 39c | 40.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 39.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 41c | 36.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 52c | 35.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 39c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfa…3b3dbacked Yes | 44c | 33.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 45c | 32.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 31.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 57c | 31.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 31.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 51c | 30.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…668abacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 54c | 29.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 29.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 53c | 28.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…565cbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.