Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76ff26b0ee8dc94d4da7df5cb11cc60c34fbf05b3f89edbb0740140cc40ba327
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 330.09$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.83 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 30c | 329.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 232.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked No | 69c | 201.8$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 175$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.69 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 168.27$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 164.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 147.23$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 146.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 21c | 136.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 70c | 132.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 129.58$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 9c | 129.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 37c | 120.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 35c | 120.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 37c | 119.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 114.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 25c | 113.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 113.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 13c | 102$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked No | 70c | 99.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 70c | 98.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 58c | 97.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…3f91backed Yes | 16c | 92.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 31c | 90.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 89.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 34c | 87.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 27c | 87.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7d…0f88backed Yes | 36c | 87.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 86.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…eaaebacked Yes | 33c | 69.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 68c | 69.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 61c | 67.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 31c | 64.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 66c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 40c | 62.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 62.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 68c | 62.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 70c | 59.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 45c | 58.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 24c | 58.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 65c | 56.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 34c | 50.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 33c | 50.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 36c | 49.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 27c | 48.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 69c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 43c | 46.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 34c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 31c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed Yes | 33c | 45.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…b083backed Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 72c | 42.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…c77dbacked Yes | 29c | 41.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…37aebacked Yes | 28c | 39.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…dcc0backed No | 74c | 38.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 45c | 38.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 58c | 38.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35d…5289backed No | 72c | 38.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd6…3ea1backed Yes | 39c | 35.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 63c | 35.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 29c | 34.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…17cabacked Yes | 45c | 33.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x474d…860fbacked No | 73c | 32.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 42c | 32.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910e…29bcbacked Yes | 33c | 30.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 29.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 78c | 29.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 27.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 39c | 26.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…d740backed Yes | 41c | 25.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 76c | 25.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 23.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.