Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x611ac578349fed708e8b68dc63c5d19eaa0c0190619467c3eb36e639afd25fd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 10c | 9,049$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.3 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 18c | 1,500$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 9c | 1,045$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 10c | 299.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 18c | 167.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 9c | 166.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 19c | 131.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…b53abacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 17c | 70.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…a37cbacked Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5this page
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.