Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcbe200dab44b167b389380884b61eee886d7a41131f4f275ff6428612427d77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 31c | 1,911$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.34 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 1,688$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.51 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 1,594$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.51 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…ad77backed Over | 69c | 1,447$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…6dd0backed Over | 70c | 1,286$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…eb2abacked Over | 69c | 980.57$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +146.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 18c | 812.24$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.02 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 31c | 782.72$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.64 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Over | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 74c | 488$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Over | 69c | 468.91$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…b655backed Under | 32c | 427.92$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Over | 69c | 366.99$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.77 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Over | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Over | 69c | 290.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…0fd1backed Over | 69c | 165.22$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…3ebdbacked Over | 69c | 145$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 83 | 69.9%58 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 31c | 141.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Under | 32c | 140.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…cf1fbacked Over | 75c | 136.78$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 24c | 135.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 32c | 131.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 31c | 130.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…ae26backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Under | 12c | 114.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 76c | 105.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ae…4440backed Over | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed4…8f43backed Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 76c | 69.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 68c | 65.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 126 | 33.3%42 W · 84 L | -21.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -12.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbecf…0f51backed Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Over | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Over | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…fddbbacked Over | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 31c | 34.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -15.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 68c | 22.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Over | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5this page
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.