Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61256d90f7021ac9adeff790051e5f2611a8ef526bb2be662462f11ac82bbdc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 905.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 900.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 5c | 450.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 8c | 282.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 258.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 10c | 221.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 11c | 221.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 9c | 218.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 10c | 218.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 6c | 202.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 11c | 159.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 158.41$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 11c | 150.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 48c | 115.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 14c | 105.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 14c | 103.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 96.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 25c | 87.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 30c | 85.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…7baebacked Yes | 25c | 80.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 70.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 18c | 60.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 61c | 35.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 33.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 79c | 31.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 31.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…791bbacked Yes | 66c | 30.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 79c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 59c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 51c | 21.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…c220backed Yes | 61c | 21.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 58c | 17.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 77c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7296…4568backed No | 75c | 14.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.