TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,845 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes22c664.2$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8328324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No76c648.74$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.052,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes8c394.03$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.351,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No75c281$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.495,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes29c274.34$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7794552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes28c274.31$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.563,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc118…18e2backed Yes8c272.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4915346.4%71 W · 82 L+26.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+112.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes8c237.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3842820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes7c221.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.922,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes22c207.6$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.162,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes25c204.4$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.580130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61f…fa82backed Yes6c197.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.86545.6%3 W · 51 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c183.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes24c167.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4033351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No75c155.74$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.174,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No62c149.96$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.981,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No64c141$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.288,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes21c134$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4843932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c126.76$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.345,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No78c123.37$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.083,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes11c111.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.052,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes32c110$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.475,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c105$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.283,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0128142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes14c98.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.096,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes21c98.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes26c97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.11,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed Yes26c94.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.540352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8746…f522backed Yes36c86.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3111748.7%57 W · 60 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3add…7baebacked Yes14c77.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes23c75.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3797152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No77c67.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No74c65.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.081,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes23c65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.957540%30 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2b7…cdb7backed No77c64.2$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.773357.6%19 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No67c63.52$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.054,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes26c61.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.021,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1440…7712backed Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.49035.6%32 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.31,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No77c59.92$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.937,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes30c57.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes44c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1533962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes28c54.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1558138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.54,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.13,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No73c47.89$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1398565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes27c46.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8277555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes25c46.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.551,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No66c46.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.832,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes26c46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7322740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No63c45.14$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.727248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes26c44.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4855954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes30c42.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.981,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed No63c42.39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6810857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No75c41.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4318565.4%121 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No70c40.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1341760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes37c40.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.422937.1%85 W · 144 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0358358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes36c38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6831936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No72c37.81$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.593,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.352,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c32.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.091,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.880275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No65c29.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4738860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No69c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9964167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No69c27.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.581,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3c…ca16backed No65c27.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6314934.2%51 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd353…9ac2backed No75c26.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.786264.5%40 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No72c24.93$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.941,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No77c24.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5163255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x846b…63b6backed No65c23.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.225343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ab…faadbacked No76c22.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.482777.8%21 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa109…7e42backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.411068.2%75 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.72,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9980…a50cbacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.427100%7 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.919662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No75c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.751,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No71c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.591,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No65c18.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.311,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No67c15.37$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0788973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No70c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5580957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.