Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cc67c6bf7a2961fe5e2e0eb44d46e548d3475c58ea138c856c6f7cc0a4ad63e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 28c | 716.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 18c | 556.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 524.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 27c | 505.11$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 23c | 400$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 26c | 383.51$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 329.56$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 277.52$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 272$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 28c | 257.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 219.91$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 12c | 218.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 166.65$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 80c | 123.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 92.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 79.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 78.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d5…dc41backed No | 71c | 73.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 68.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…0a82backed No | 71c | 65.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 59.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 57.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 70c | 57.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 80c | 54.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 53.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 24c | 50.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 76c | 50.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 49.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 48.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 47.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 76c | 42.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 42.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 27c | 39.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed Yes | 28c | 36.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 79c | 35.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 80c | 33.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 27.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 69c | 26.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 74c | 23.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 73c | 17.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 15.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…825dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 13.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.