Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68bdbcbd2938d225bad112047b3f2202f71ec21f0ab170d50a07ec5d8c1bf0e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 1c | 1,034$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 5c | 664.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.05 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 2c | 559.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.07 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 26c | 554.85$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.65 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 457.32$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…88dfbacked Yes | 78c | 308.22$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 294.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 53c | 280.12$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.31 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 269.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 5c | 225.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…388cbacked No | 61c | 201$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.33 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 13c | 198.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 176.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.47 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 75c | 143.16$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 139.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 15c | 136.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 49c | 117.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 12c | 108.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.58 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 15c | 107.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 54c | 92.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 91.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 91.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 88.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 23c | 86.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 63c | 79.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 14c | 79.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 41c | 77.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 63c | 71.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 69c | 71.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 69.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 37c | 59.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 54.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 59c | 49.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 47c | 41.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 36c | 40.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4d…3375backed Yes | 60c | 37.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 46c | 33.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 29.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 24.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 51c | 23.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…9bcfbacked No | 52c | 20.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 74cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.