Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61288d6f9ea97d8f52f47b40c55a2278079e96ea557d65f6f4ea8da7f2b9919b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 0c | 4,495$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 2c | 1,221$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 384.35$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 12c | 331.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.89 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 7c | 305.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 10c | 268.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.12 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 19c | 264.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 77c | 171.23$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 158.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…872abacked Yes | 19c | 129.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 32c | 125.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 73c | 119.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 13c | 117.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.75 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 65c | 106.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…8e79backed Yes | 14c | 105.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +634.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 39c | 104.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf462…2cd4backed Yes | 19c | 97.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 23c | 84.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 47c | 69.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 68.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4674…03cabacked Yes | 38c | 67.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 58.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 55.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 26c | 53.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed No | 72c | 51.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 44c | 47.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 38c | 37.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…60fcbacked No | 46c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.