Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dcb1f94c356cfde7abb7441daa5a9ed62934910b689daba1ade2ffad8e3332a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 649.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed No | 24c | 572.04$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.09 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10c…6d2cbacked No | 71c | 458.51$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…60fcbacked Yes | 69c | 430.36$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.97 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 51c | 419.31$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.85 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 258.76$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 78c | 257.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.09 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 25c | 176.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.48 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 73c | 150$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 148.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 68c | 128.21$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 121.78$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 63c | 116.93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…5a85backed Yes | 72c | 91.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 68c | 90.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 87.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 77.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 23c | 76.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 73.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 39c | 63.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 77c | 55.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 55.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 27c | 54.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 53.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes | 78c | 51.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 34c | 49.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 36c | 46.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 43.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 49c | 41.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 35c | 41.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 55c | 34.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed Yes | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 30.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked Yes | 65c | 29.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 36c | 28.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 72c | 27.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 65c | 26.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 75c | 25.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 59c | 25.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked Yes | 51c | 24.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…8292backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked Yes | 63c | 19.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 19.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.