Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x613206bdacb040ddd79e4c6d3dfc5d141909c06b51241f26b341fc85862e4ca8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 16c | 685$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 78c | 492.33$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.82 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…b3b0backed Yes | 31c | 329.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 311.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 301.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 38c | 290.07$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.36 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 12c | 267.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.84 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 257.43$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…c5dbbacked No | 46c | 153.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 150.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 15c | 139.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.37 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 27c | 119.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 57c | 102.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 19c | 89.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 35c | 83.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 17c | 75.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 40c | 69.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 40c | 64.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac0…0f1cbacked Yes | 22c | 64.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed No | 77c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 34c | 58.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 27c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…a97ebacked No | 33c | 56.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 75c | 55.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 49.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0080…923cbacked Yes | 36c | 44.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 27c | 44.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 25c | 43.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e15bbacked Yes | 41c | 40.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 60c | 34.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 74c | 33.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 33.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 78c | 32.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 39c | 31.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 36c | 30.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 48c | 28.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 73c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 79c | 26.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 56c | 24.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x48fd…aca7backed No | 74c | 24.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 73c | 21.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 73c | 16.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.