Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6149d150cb852cc33f1a27b61d31f311a3877f9c72d4290d71c6b312da49d0a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,994 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 7c | 7,552$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.81 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…e35bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,694$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bad…1d19backed No | 6c | 2,522$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 1,290$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 55c | 1,251$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.89 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed Yes | 12c | 870$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…23c4backed Yes | 6c | 645.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked Yes | 13c | 615.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 22cpaid | +194.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 39c | 597.8$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.62 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 531.66$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 65c | 476.27$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 469.39$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 23c | 446.62$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 19c | 403.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 77c | 392.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 363.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.98 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 27c | 359.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.63 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 19c | 351.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.87 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 23c | 348.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 56c | 338.42$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.94 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde58…b901backed No | 4c | 298.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +661%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd043…50c8backed Yes | 25c | 259.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Yes | 58c | 224.88$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.54 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb65…cf36backed Yes | 15c | 210.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 12c | 202.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.13 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 47c | 179.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.34 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 55c | 170.96$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 47c | 163$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed Yes | 43c | 155$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 75c | 141.55$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 44c | 139.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 30c | 132.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.73 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 61c | 129.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…1a9ebacked No | 71c | 129.12$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 120.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 9c | 119.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c6…0ec7backed No | 47c | 117.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +136%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked Yes | 24c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 69c | 107.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 48c | 106.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…3173backed No | 27c | 103.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 50c | 100.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 51c | 98.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 26c | 95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed No | 70c | 94.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 85.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 47c | 84.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 53c | 84.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 42c | 82.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed No | 21c | 82.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 55c | 76.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed No | 15c | 73.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…0e79backed No | 34c | 73.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6582…b20bbacked No | 50c | 73.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 74c | 72.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 71c | 70.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 70.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 64c | 67.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 74c | 67.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes | 60c | 66.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 76c | 65.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 50c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 23c | 61.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 45c | 61.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc106…2a44backed No | 26c | 60.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 49c | 60.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 50c | 57.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 74c | 56.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 74c | 55.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 23c | 54.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a7…0d4bbacked Yes | 56c | 53.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 77c | 52.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 77c | 49.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes | 76c | 41.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb05b…58afbacked Yes | 74c | 40.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…6530backed Yes | 74c | 39.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 51c | 39.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 72c | 38.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 75c | 37.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…cf46backed Yes | 41c | 36.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked Yes | 42c | 34.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…26febacked Yes | 74c | 33.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…fe61backed Yes | 60c | 32.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 69c | 32.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 57c | 32.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 53c | 31.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee8…e39cbacked No | 52c | 28.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89f…4864backed Yes | 41c | 28.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.