Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a59dd5e02867aad791ba4aeaff316d07e1d2568ea92110b583c75d28d2609e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,102 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e24…7379backed No | 0c | 24,270$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6582…b20bbacked No | 79c | 5,040$3,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,972.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 50c | 1,421$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.61 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,293$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.43 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 44c | 1,251$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.19 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 753.9$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 739.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.03 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 15c | 729.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.14 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 52c | 574.63$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.98 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 463.91$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 31c | 452.83$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.4 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 413.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 385.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde58…b901backed Yes | 4c | 377.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +661%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 66c | 327.2$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.4 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 15c | 248.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.36 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 50c | 246.59$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 16c | 243.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.19 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 22c | 239.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 47c | 227.36$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 54c | 215.58$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 41c | 213.71$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…1a9ebacked Yes | 52c | 202.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 199.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.96 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad92…af55backed Yes | 9c | 196.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.93 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c6…0ec7backed Yes | 39c | 168.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +136%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 36c | 144.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…488cbacked Yes | 17c | 135.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…7fb5backed Yes | 17c | 132.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +210.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 36c | 129.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 77c | 129.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed Yes | 47c | 128.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.53 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 51c | 114$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 15c | 111.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…72fbbacked Yes | 51c | 108.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 49c | 100.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…4af3backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…b3b0backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4958…16a4backed No | 52c | 96.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 89.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…3468backed No | 45c | 89.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 40c | 81.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 40c | 74.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed No | 62c | 71.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 43c | 69.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 67.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 33c | 67.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 62.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 50c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 64c | 58.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 20c | 56.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 18c | 54.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…b510backed No | 29c | 52.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 52.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 78c | 50.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 55c | 50.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd89f…4864backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 48.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 61c | 48.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a7…0d4bbacked Yes | 57c | 47.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 47.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 30c | 44.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 48c | 41.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 67c | 37.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 51c | 27.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 77c | 27.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 57c | 26.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…e81bbacked No | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ced…574abacked No | 72c | 24.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…aacdbacked Yes | 53c | 23.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe565…9479backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.