Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Air Force Falcons vs. Boise State Broncos: O/U 135.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x614c10a153ee731f43466080426062d1fae6a4b7331288a31fae54060869db4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $305,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $305,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 52c | 279,920$145,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134,460 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 48c | 150,000$72,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,000 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Under | 48c | 100,000$48,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,000 | 302 | 49.3%149 W · 153 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 48c | 15,000$7,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,250 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +34.7wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Under | 50c | 12,024$6,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,035.51 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Over | 50c | 5,036$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,518 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33d0…f7ebbacked Under | 46c | 4,391$2,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 49c | 2,502$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 2,337$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.52 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 48c | 2,256$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.04 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 1,949$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.38 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,611$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.52 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 51c | 1,137$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 49c | 600$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Under | 49c | 399.86$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.93 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 357.32$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.09 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 48c | 350$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b0…482cbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 51c | 127.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 116.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 114$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 108$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe0…323bbacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…f10abacked Under | 50c | 45.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…f845backed Under | 49c | 42.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…86f9backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Over | 50c | 20.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 176 | 61.4%108 W · 68 L | +17.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Air Force Falcons vs. Boise State Broncos: O/U 135.5this page
- Air Force Falcons vs. Boise State BroncosBoise State Broncos won
- Air Force Falcons vs. Boise State Broncos: O/U 133.5Over won
- Air Force Falcons vs. Boise State Broncos: O/U 134.5Over won
- Spread: Boise State Broncos (-22.5)Boise State Broncos won
- Spread: Boise State Broncos (-23.5)Boise State Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.