Earnings · resolved market
Will Boeing say "Tariff" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6154c331335585ed790ae349b059b051bc44be27e1754ea0a1fd10a496f31f60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 34c | 1,600$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 65c | 845.98$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.23 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +6.8wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 244.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 35c | 199.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 160.22$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 34c | 139.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 67c | 124.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 25c | 116$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 213 | 41.3%88 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 56.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | -15.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 55.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked Yes | 34c | 40.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…c2e6backed No | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 67c | 30.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Boeing say "Tariff" during earnings call?this page
- Will Boeing say "Airbus" during earnings call?No won
- Will Boeing say "Artemis" during earnings call?No won
- Will Boeing say "China" during earnings call?No won
- Will Boeing say "Delivery" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Boeing say "Dividend" during earnings call?No won
- Will Boeing say "Guidance" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Boeing say "Iran" during earnings call?No won
- Will Boeing say "Moon" during earnings call?No won
- Will Boeing say "Oil" during earnings call?No won
- Will Boeing say "Program" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Boeing say "Space" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.