F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri win the Qatar Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x615b15dd4f324931b241a4761a8549ec22cd0379c417c0387c4844c4907c5bbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 12c | 1,600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 11c | 1,582$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.77 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 2c | 1,376$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e8…0819backed Yes | 8c | 1,364$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 3c | 854.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes | 14c | 706.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x603e…c256backed Yes | 7c | 683.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x075d…8ab6backed Yes | 12c | 592.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 11c | 548.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 5c | 458.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…db66backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…fb1bbacked Yes | 6c | 361.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…df81backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 286.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…605dbacked Yes | 19c | 272.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 8c | 219.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…ef2cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…b059backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…d284backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…e81fbacked Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e9…7003backed Yes | 9c | 144.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…bfacbacked Yes | 15c | 134$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09cc…b956backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…3b7ebacked Yes | 17c | 129.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Yes | 12c | 126.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379d…54efbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…0c6abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 20cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa610…0461backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…0fb8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe121…1d13backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ec…dcc2backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd7…925ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Qatar Grand Prix?this page
- WIll another driver win the Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz win the Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Qatar Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Sergio Perez win the Qatar Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.