F1 · resolved market
Will George Russell win the Qatar Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e75eef5731507d42815c99382675eefc96c82a05f802e1f8b32254dbb2c8c8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 18c | 14,392$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,620.08 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 62c | 5,893$3,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240.99 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 34c | 2,777$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.5 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 64c | 2,692$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.14 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed Yes | 37c | 2,620$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +184.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed Yes | 11c | 2,504$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x603e…c256backed Yes | 36c | 2,169$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Yes | 40c | 1,245$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…f0babacked Yes | 35c | 1,210$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 4c | 963.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 64c | 829.44$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 13c | 580.91$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes | 19c | 539.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 526.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 61c | 499.99$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 36c | 494$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…3d8abacked Yes | 10c | 490.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +179.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 13c | 490$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 16c | 426$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f94…e466backed Yes | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…9e29backed Yes | 10c | 410.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Yes | 39c | 397.43$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…b1b2backed Yes | 16c | 397.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807e…50d6backed Yes | 5c | 331.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…605dbacked Yes | 24c | 305.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…3ca4backed No | 64c | 304.52$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 78c | 304.17$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 13c | 291.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd184…491cbacked Yes | 37c | 281.08$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa038…cda9backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc25…d781backed Yes | 36c | 258.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ef1ebacked No | 78c | 242.81$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 29c | 230$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd98e…7a84backed Yes | 44c | 225.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…5a7cbacked Yes | 21c | 144.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c4…466fbacked Yes | 35c | 141.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb2…634dbacked Yes | 26c | 132.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +78%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 16c | 128.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379d…54efbacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9330…21a2backed No | 65c | 105.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +195.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa18e…d05fbacked Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…0c6abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 20cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x944f…dc62backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…bdadbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…0e5bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e57…e535backed Yes | 42c | 94.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…c9a2backed Yes | 37c | 90.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a2…1f0bbacked Yes | 36c | 85.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5180…b344backed Yes | 25c | 82.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2817…1f7cbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…abb7backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 32c | 59.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…fae8backed No | 65c | 50.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 21c | 50.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435c…d8acbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…07abbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb63…5241backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…3689backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…ec69backed Yes | 39c | 31.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…e2d3backed Yes | 37c | 31.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…55d7backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09cc…b956backed No | 65c | 21.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will George Russell win the Qatar Grand Prix?this page
- WIll another driver win the Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz win the Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Qatar Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Sergio Perez win the Qatar Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.