Other European Leagues · resolved market
Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x615e2d25bd4caa3271019249428370962d839d22ccc2634986c09bd748442164
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 15c | 6,000$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.71 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 4,825$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.27 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 70c | 2,203$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00d…af5fbacked Under | 44c | 1,707$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3d…6039backed Over | 34c | 1,488$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.79 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 54c | 648.67$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.63 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 8c | 536.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 49c | 401.27$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.99 | 256 | 41.4%106 W · 150 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 49c | 353.75$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.41 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 51c | 341.71$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.27 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…b1bebacked Over | 9c | 277.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…583cbacked Under | 65c | 253.5$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.53 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 78c | 219.6$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 559 | 54.9%307 W · 252 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed Over | 55c | 218.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.03 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 31c | 213.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 460 | 44.3%204 W · 256 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Over | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 77c | 192.29$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 58c | 167.22$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | -12.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Over | 16c | 132.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 125.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 44c | 115.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 76c | 103.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcba1…1734backed Over | 58c | 69.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 76c | 68.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 40c | 58.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…b1a1backed Over | 24c | 58.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…29a1backed Under | 54c | 51.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 338 | 58.6%198 W · 140 L | +30.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 31c | 41.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 408 | 50.7%207 W · 201 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Under | 39c | 28.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…4fffbacked Under | 39c | 28.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Under | 50c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…fc6ebacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 77c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…7140backed Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Under | 76c | 13.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: O/U 4.5this page
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: Aalesunds FK O/U 1.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: Aalesunds FK O/U 2.5Under won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Aalesunds FK (-1.5)Molde FK won
- Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5)Molde FK won
- Spread: Molde FK (-1.5)Aalesunds FK won
- Spread: Molde FK (-2.5)Aalesunds FK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.