Other European Leagues · resolved market
Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0ed634dfc99f03df6380d11fce4c649e7eaec1c7eb7d5eec8ce614fb3a0b22c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 35c | 633.41$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.93 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 478.35$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.19 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 37c | 343.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 63c | 286.3$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.53 | 460 | 44.3%204 W · 256 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf958…31b3backed Under | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 61c | 240.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 64c | 234.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 87 | 58.6%51 W · 36 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 35c | 227.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 37c | 216.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 37c | 209.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -8.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 37c | 203.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Over | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 33c | 151.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 256 | 41.4%106 W · 150 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 64c | 144.24$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 1,434 | 37.7%540 W · 894 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…208cbacked Under | 35c | 123.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 37c | 100.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 241 | 46.9%113 W · 128 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 64c | 90.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Under | 37c | 86.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc54…26edbacked Under | 37c | 81.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Over | 66c | 74.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 64c | 61.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Under | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 37c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…b1a1backed Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Under | 37c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 35c | 41.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 36c | 39.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -10.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c7…48c0backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 220 | 62.3%137 W · 83 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: O/U 2.5this page
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: Aalesunds FK O/U 1.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: Aalesunds FK O/U 2.5Under won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: O/U 3.5Over won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Aalesunds FK vs. Molde FK: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Aalesunds FK (-1.5)Molde FK won
- Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5)Molde FK won
- Spread: Molde FK (-1.5)Aalesunds FK won
- Spread: Molde FK (-2.5)Aalesunds FK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.